A Study on the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from China's Transportation Sector

Abstract

The deep decarbonization of the transportation sector is of decisive significance for China to achieve its "dual carbon" strategic goals. The formulation of a scientific emission reduction path relies on the precise quantitative analysis of the driving factors of carbon emissions growth. This study systematically combed through China's macroeconomic, social and infrastructure data from 2004 to 2023, and selected 11 potential driving factors covering four dimensions: economic scale, industrial structure, population and society, and infrastructure. By using SPSS statistical software and comprehensively applying methods such as correlation analysis, curve estimation and multiple linear stepwise regression, a multi-factor prediction model for the turnover volume of each sub-sector of passenger and freight transportation was constructed for the first time in a systematic manner. The empirical results show that the output value of the secondary industry is the most stable core economic variable driving freight demand (especially railway and waterway transportation); the urbanization rate has a significant positive impact on freight (railway and air) and air passenger turnover volume, revealing the deep transportation demand brought about by spatial structure changes; port throughput, as an indicator of an outward-oriented economy and trade activity, is closely related to road freight and air passenger demand. This study identified and quantified the key macro drivers of transportation carbon emissions from the root cause of demand, not only providing a reliable quantitative tool for transportation demand prediction, but also offering solid empirical evidence and decision-making references for achieving source reduction through top-level design such as optimizing industrial layout, adjusting economic structure and guiding urbanization models.